Post TPM26 Brews - Cargoccino 3.11.26
Freshly brewed supply chain intelligence, served short and strong
This week’s Cargoccino comes straight after our week in Long Beach, where the global supply chain community gathered for TPM26. Between conversations on the show floor, geopolitical headlines, and regulatory developments in Washington, one thing is clear: 2026 is shaping up to be another year where supply chain leaders must stay alert to shifting risks and opportunities.
Top of the Cup: BlueCargo at TPM26
TPM26 was a milestone for BlueCargo, and we left Long Beach energized.
Our CEO & Co-Founder, Alexandra Griffon, took the stage alongside leaders from The Home Depot, Kohler, and Michelin for "The Contract-to-Cash Playbook: How Leading Importers Unlock Profits Trapped in Their Supply Chain", a practitioner-level session that resonated deeply with the room. As noted on stage, the freight audit on unplanned fees is where shippers consistently see the “BlueCargo magic” and find money they didn't know they were leaving on the table.
We are especially grateful to these three of our customers for making the trip to Long Beach to share their experience on stage. Thank you to everyone who stopped by the booth, showed up at our meetings, and asked great questions. In the coming days, we will share a recap of our panel and a summary of key takeaways.
Meanwhile, check out this 30-sec video recap of TPM26.
Conflict in the Middle East: Significant, But Not Pandemic-Scale
News broke of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, and within hours at TPM26, the focus across the show floor shifted to what the escalation could mean for shipping routes, fuel prices, and freight markets.
The closing analysis came from Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime. His read: serious, but not a global catastrophe on the scale of past disruptions. "This is going to sound weird. Globally, strictly on container shipping, it's a problem, but it's not a major problem," Jensen told attendees. The cargo directly at risk (vessels already in the Gulf or booked there within 90 days) amounts to roughly 2 million TEUs. Large in absolute terms, but far more contained than the Red Sea rerouting that affected all Asia-Europe and Asia-USEC traffic.
The bigger consequence for most shippers is the Suez Canal. A return in H2 2026 had been a working assumption for many importers heading into contract season. Jensen put that to rest: assuming hostilities stop soon, no carrier will contemplate Suez transits for at least six more months. Africa diversions continue, effective capacity stays tighter, and carriers have more leverage at the negotiating table than they did two weeks ago.
On surcharges, Jensen was direct: carriers will push emergency fuel and conflict surcharges across all trades, not only Gulf-related lanes. Even shippers on the Asia-USWC corridor will feel it through congestion effects.
Air Cargo Is Taking a Hit Too
The impact on air freight has been immediate. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha, three of the world's largest cargo transshipment hubs, are closed to commercial traffic. Global air cargo capacity is down roughly 18% week-over-week, with 13% tied directly to the grounding of Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad. On the Asia-Middle East/South Asia-Europe corridor, capacity has dropped close to 40%.
Forwarders are chartering replacement flights. Rates are moving up fast: China-U.S. air rates up around 15%, Southeast Asia-Europe up over 6%. War risk surcharges are being introduced, jet fuel costs are climbing, and Brent crude crossed $88/barrel, up from $61 at year-end.
One specific pressure point worth watching: Dubai is a critical node for sea-air shipments moving from Asia by vessel and transferring to aircraft for Europe or U.S. delivery. That corridor is currently not functioning, which is pushing lead times out and limiting options for time-sensitive cargo.
Source: FreightWaves
IEEPA Refunds: The Money Exists, CBP Cannot Process It Yet
Following the Supreme Court ruling that IEEPA tariffs were unlawfully imposed, CBP is working to build the refund infrastructure inside the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE). The total refund pool is estimated at $150 to $200 billion. More than 2,000 lawsuits have already been filed at the Court of International Trade, including by Costco, Goodyear, Alcoa, and Toyota.
CBP has indicated the refund mechanism should be operational within approximately 45 days. Refunds are expected to go out electronically via ACH. The timeline remains uncertain: a federal trade judge has ordered the administration to begin paying, the administration has pushed back, and customs brokers report there is still no clear filing process in place.
For importers, the practical steps right now are: confirm ACE portal access, verify ACH enrollment, identify entries where IEEPA tariffs were assessed and paid, and keep entry summaries, invoices, and duty payment records organized and accessible.
Source: Toll Global Forwarding and Jon Monroe Consulting, March 2026
2026 Contract Season: Shippers Negotiating
Heading into TPM, most participants expected the 2026 contract season to settle at or slightly below last year's rates. Spot rates had been declining for more than two months, carriers had announced several General Rate Increases, but each one lost momentum within days of taking effect as underlying demand failed to support higher prices, and over 130 blank sailings had already been pulled to slow the erosion. The general mood was that carriers would be negotiating from a weak position.
That changed quickly. As news of the Iran bombing spread during the conference, several carriers paused active negotiations and pulled rate offers that had been on the table only days earlier. The rationale is straightforward: rising fuel costs, war-risk insurance premiums, potential vessel redeployments, and continued Africa diversions all affect carrier operating costs in ways that are still hard to quantify.
For shippers, the challenge is that uncertainty cuts both ways. Locking in contracts now means pricing in risk that may or may not materialize. Waiting means potentially negotiating in a tighter market if the conflict persists. There is no clean answer, and that ambiguity is likely to extend negotiations and complicate multi-trade agreements through at least Q2.
Source: Jon Monroe Consulting, March 2026
☕ What's Brewing at BlueCargo ☕
Didn't catch our dashboard demo at TPM26? You'll want to see it.
Our team is working on a dashboard that gives importers clear visibility into their International Freight Spend, Landed Costs, and Accessorial Fees in one place. No more pulling data from multiple systems to reconcile what was agreed versus what was actually charged.
And stay tuned for the video that will recap our TPM26 panel with 3 of our customers, The Home Depot, Michelin and Kohler on "The Contract-to-Cash Playbook: How Leading Importers Unlock Profits Trapped in Their Supply Chain"
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